预测患有胃出血的老年患者的死亡率:对四个评分系统进行了回顾性比较研究
Omerul Faruk Aydin1, Ali Cankut Tatlıparmak2
1Department of Emergency Medicine, İstanbul Yeni Yüzyıl University, İstanbul, Turkey.
PeerJ
|March 21, 2025
概括
AIMS65评分是预测患有胃潰瘍出血 (PUB) 的老年患者死亡率的最准确工具. 这一发现有助于改善PUB的高风险老年患者的风险分层.
科学领域:
- 胃肠病学 胃肠病学
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
背景情况:
- 胃潰瘍出血 (PUB) 造成嚴重的死亡風險,尤其是在老年人中.
- 几种分数系统,包括AIMS65,格拉斯哥布拉奇福德分数 (GBS),T分数和年龄,血液测试和并发症 (ABC) 分数,用于PUB的风险分层.
- 这些工具在老年人群中的比较有效性需要进一步研究.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较AIMS65,GBS,T-score和ABC分数对PUB老年患者住院死亡率的预测性表现.
- 确定在这个脆弱的患者群体中最准确的风险分层评分系统.
主要方法:
- 对65岁及以上被诊断患有PUB的患者进行了回顾性队列研究.
- 纳入标准:在2019年1月1日至2024年1月1日期间诊断出PUB.
- 收集的数据:人口统计,临床表现,实验室结果,并发病;AIMS65,GBS,T-score和ABC分数的计算;主要结果:住院死亡率.
主要成果:
- 总共分析了315名患有PUB的老年患者,住院死亡率为7.9%.
- AIMS65显示了最高的预测准确性 (AUROC:0.829),其次是ABC分数 (AUROC:0.775).
- GBS (AUROC:0.694) 和T-score (AUROC:0.526) 的预测性表现较低;AIMS65的表现明显优于GBS (p=0.0214).
结论:
- 在预测PUB老年患者住院死亡率方面,AIMS65和ABC分数优于GBS和T-score.
- 这些发现支持使用AIMS65和ABC分数来改善老年PUB患者的风险分层和临床决策.
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