美国的洪水和特定原因死亡率,采用三倍强大的方法
Lingzhi Chu1,2, Joshua L Warren3, Erica S Spatz4,5
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, 06520, USA.
Nature communications
|March 24, 2025
概括
洪水显著增加了长期死亡风险,导致过多的死因是心脏病,呼吸系统问题和外部原因. 这凸显了对洪水后健康风险降低策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 内陆洪水对健康的长期影响仍然不太清楚.
- 以前的研究还没有完全描述与洪水暴露相关的死亡负担.
研究的目的:
- 评估每月洪水日与连续美国连续地区因特定原因死亡率之间的长期关联.
- 量化洪水后一年因洪水而导致的过度死亡率.
主要方法:
- 使用了三倍强大的统计方法,包括倾向得分匹配和反事实估计.
- 分析了县级的每月洪水数据 (NOAA风暴事件数据库,2000-2020) 和死亡记录 (CDC NCHS,2001-2020).
- 不包括源自热带风暴的沿海洪水.
主要成果:
- 一个洪水日与每100万个人的8.3个多余的全因死亡有关.
- 具体的过度死亡包括3.1为心肌梗塞,2.4为呼吸道疾病和5.9为外部原因.
- 据估计,2001年至2020年期间,大约有22,376人因洪水而死亡.
结论:
- 洪水对长期健康构成重大风险,导致死亡率上升.
- 调查结果强调了实施公共卫生措施的必要性,以减轻与洪水有关的健康影响.
- 需要进一步的研究,以充分描述与洪水有关的死亡率,并制定有效的干预措施.
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