标准的微不足道预期效用理论能否拯救微不足道原则?
Björn Lundgren1,2,3, H Orri Stefánsson3,4,2
1Department of Philosophy and Religious Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
概括
这项研究批评了标准的微不足道预期效用理论,该理论利用异常来忽略小风险. 三个论点质疑其基于微不足道原则的基础,质疑其决策框架.
科学领域:
- 决策理论 决策理论
- 风险评估 风险评估
- 规范伦理学的规范伦理学
背景情况:
- 规范性微不足道的预期效用理论将一个新的"规范性"微不足道原则纳入预期效用理论中.
- 标准de minimis原则忽略了低于概率值的风险,而标准版则使用异常.
研究的目的:
- 提出三种独立的论点反对标准的微不足道预期效用理论.
- 批判性地评估这个理论是否依赖于微不足道原则.
主要方法:
- 决策理论的哲学分析.
- 检查标准的微不足道原则的概念基础.
- 提出理论的反论证的发展.
主要成果:
- 三个不同的论点表明,标准的微不足道预期效用理论存在弱点.
- 这些论点突出了从理论中独特地应用基于异常而不是概率的微不足道原则而产生的问题.
结论:
- 标准的微不足道预期效用理论面临着重大挑战,因为它依赖于基于异常的微不足道原则.
- 进一步细化或重新考虑理论的基本假设是有必要的.
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