在印度中部智慧城市的气候变化中,每日极端降水量和温度之间的关系
Vijay Jain1, Sachidanand Kumar1, Manish Kumar Goyal1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Indore, India.
Journal of environmental management
|March 24, 2025
概括
露点温度 (DPT) 在印度中部显著增加了极端降水,超过了最高温度 (Tmax). 未来的气候场景显示Tmax的影响越来越大,需要适应性城市规划以应对气候变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 城市气象城市气象学
背景情况:
- 印度中部面临越来越多的极端降雨事件,不成比例地影响城市地区.
- 由于人口密度和经济价值较高,城市地区经历了放大效应.
- 了解极端降雨的驱动因素对于城市的可持续性和洪水风险减轻至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估印度中部智能城市每日降水极端 (Pex) 和每日最高温度 (Tmax) 和露点温度 (DPT) 之间的历史和未来的克劳西乌斯-克拉佩龙关系.
- 根据SSP 245和SSP 585的情景评估未来的预测,用于近期和远期的未来时期.
- 确定极端降水的关键气象预测因素,以告知城市规划和气候适应战略.
主要方法:
- 使用观测数据对Pex,Tmax和DPT关系进行历史分析 (1951-2022年).
- 在SSP 245和SSP 585情景下使用NEX-GDDP-CMIP6数据集进行未来气候预测 (2023-2100).
- 评估温度变量和Pex之间的缩放率,用于近期 (2023-2050) 和远期 (2051-2100) 的未来时期.
主要成果:
- 从历史上看,DPT是Pex的强大驱动因素,显示超级缩放率高达17%°C-1.1.
- 未来的预测表明,在SSP 245和SSP 585两种情景下,Tmax和Pex之间的扩展率提高了.
- 预计萨特纳,萨加尔和贾巴尔普尔等城市将在极端降水量方面经历积极的扩大,Tmax在遥远的未来变得越来越有影响力.
结论:
- 露点温度是目前印度中部极端降雨的更可靠的预测指标.
- 未来的气候变化,特别是Tmax的上升,将大大影响降水极端,特别是在本世纪下半叶.
- 调查结果为决策者和科学家提供了关键的见解,以提高城市的性和减轻印度智慧城市的洪水风险.
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