COVID-19对虐待儿童和社会经济地位的因果影响:贝叶斯时间序列研究
Foad Kazemi1, Jiaqi Liu2, Isam W Nasr3
1Department of Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. fkazemi1@jh.edu.
Pediatric research
|March 25, 2025
概括
随着COVID-19大流行,儿童虐待和创伤性脑损伤 (TBI) 病例显著增加. 这一增长与社会经济状况恶化相关,突显了针对性干预的必要性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 儿科创伤 儿童创伤
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- COVID-19 流行病加剧了心理社会压力因素,可能会增加儿童虐待率.
- 了解大流行对虐待儿童和TBI的影响对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 之前的研究表明,社会经济因素与虐待儿童之间存在联系.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较COVID-19大流行之前和之后的儿童虐待和TBI入学趋势.
- 评估大流行对虐待儿童/TBI入院和社会经济地位的因果影响.
- 分析疫情期间受伤严重程度和邻里不利状况的变化.
主要方法:
- 在一级儿科创伤中心进行了为期7年的回顾性研究.
- 使用ICD-10代码来识别TBI,以及社区劣势的社会贫困指数 (SDI).
- 采用贝叶斯结构时间序列 (BSTS) 建模来确定大流行病的因果关系.
主要成果:
- 在疫情期间,儿童虐待病例增加了48.9%,TBI病例增加了50.8%.
- 发现COVID-19的显著因果影响是每月的儿童虐待和TBI入院.
- 邻居不利 (SDI) 呈现上升趋势,而伤害严重程度 (ISS) 在大流行期间下降.
结论:
- COVID-19 流行病与虐待儿童和TBI 病例的显著增加有关.
- 越来越多的SDI表明,社会经济状况的恶化伴随着虐待儿童案件的增加.
- 调查结果强调需要积极的干预和持续的监测来保护儿童.
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