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气候变化对Rupr Betula tianschanica预测的地理分布的影响

Hang Zhou^1,2, Ao Li^1,2, Xuequn Luo^1,2

¹School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Mianyang Teachers' College, Mianyang, China.

Frontiers in plant science

|March 26, 2025

概括

气候变化威胁着临灭绝的树种贝图拉 (Betula tianschanica). 这项研究使用了MaxEnt和RF模型来预测其分布,发现海拔高度是关键,在某些气候场景下,适当的息地可能会扩大.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

贝图拉 (Betula tianschanica) 是一个临灭绝的树种,由于气候变化而面临息地碎片化.
该物种主要分布在天山山脉,并被列入中亚红色树木名单.

研究的目的:

调查影响Betula tianschanica分布的环境决定因素.
在未来的气候变化场景下,预测贝图拉天香草的潜在地理分布区域.

主要方法:

采用了两个生态利基模型:最大 (MaxEnt) 和随机森林 (RF).
利用116个分布点和27个环境变量来模拟物种分布.
使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 评分来比较模型性能.

主要成果:

MaxEnt和RF模型都将海拔确定为关键因素;MaxEnt还强调了土壤石量,而RF则强调了最潮湿季度的降水量.
与射频模型 (AUC=0.873) 相比,MaxEnt模型显示出更高的预测准确性 (AUC=0.970).
在SSP58.5情景下,预计到2041-2060年,Betula tianschanica的适合息地将大幅扩大 (42.7%),尽管在SSP2-4.5.5情景下注意到了下降.

结论:

高度是Betula tianschanica分布中最关键的环境因素.
保护战略应包括在天山山脉建立保护区,并实施气候避难所的适应性管理.
建议进行国际合作和长期人口监测,以有效保护这个危物种.

关键词:

贝图拉蒂安斯卡尼卡俄罗斯公司马克斯恩特马克斯恩特这就是为什么RF是RF,RF是RF 环境因素环境因素预测的地理分布.

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