美元冲击和跨境资本流动:来自33个新兴经济体的证据
1Business School, University of Jinan, Jinan, Shandong, China.
PloS one
|March 26, 2025
概括
美元升值冲击大大减少了新兴经济体的资本流入,增加了金融风险. 灵活的汇率加剧了这些影响,而固定汇率提供了一些保护,强调了政策调整的必要性.
科学领域:
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 货币经济学 货币经济学
- 新兴市场 新兴市场
背景情况:
- 国际货币体系由美元主导.
- 新兴经济体在美联储政策转变后经历了资本流向逆转.
研究的目的:
- 调查新兴经济体跨境资本流入对美元升值冲击的敏感性.
- 分析这些冲击在资本流入不同阶段的动态演变,并确定尾部效应.
主要方法:
- 分析了2006年第一季度至2021年第四季度33个新兴经济体的数据.
- 应用一个面板量子模型来检查美元升值冲击及其对资本流入的影响.
- 探索金融周期差异和汇率制度的作用.
主要成果:
- 美元升值冲击降低了新兴经济体的跨境资本流入总量,主要是由于金融周期差异.
- 美元冲击的影响在资本流入量量之间有很大差异,增加了左尾风险.
- 灵活的汇率放大了美元冲击的负面影响,而固定和中间制度提供了一些缓解,特别是在较低的流入量.
结论:
- 美元升值是预测新兴经济体资本流入趋势的关键风险因素.
- 国家结构特征影响"风险资本流动"对美元冲击的敏感性.
- 建议新兴经济体采取政策措施,以减轻美元波动的不利影响.
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