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人口变化将塑造行星生物多样性
Alfredo Cisneros-Pineda1, Abhishek Chaudhary2, Uris L C Baldos1
1Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, Indiana, USA.
The Science of the total environment
|March 26, 2025
概括
未来的人口增长,特别是在非洲,将导致生物多样性大幅减少. 富裕国家的增长放缓可能会带来一些保护效益,突出区域人口对物种的影响.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 全球人口增长和经济发展威胁到自然资本和生态系统服务.
- 之前的研究还没有完全孤立区域人口变化对全球生物多样性模式的影响.
研究的目的:
- 量化变化的人口动态对全球生物多样性丧失的影响.
- 确定导致土地利用变化和生物多样性下降的关键经济驱动因素和市场机制.
- 在不同的人口增长场景下预测未来的生物多样性丧失.
主要方法:
- 集成了一个计算通用平衡经济模型 (GTAP-AEZ) 与生物多样性特征因子.
- 由于土地使用变化而导致的物种 (哺乳动物,鸟类,两动物,爬行动物,植物) 预计在2021-2041年期间在正常经济情景下消失.
- 分析人口变化作为唯一的驱动因素,比较历史 (2001-2021) 和未来 (2021-2041) 人口趋势.
- 使用联合国概率人口预测评估不确定性.
- 确定经济部门和市场机制 (进口替代,直接/间接贸易增加) 推动土地利用变化.
主要成果:
- 预计非洲持续强的人口增长将导致生物多样性更快的丧失.
- 预计富裕国家的人口增长放缓将有利于某些地区的生物多样性.
- 确定了特定的经济部门和与贸易相关的市场机制是区域间土地利用变化和生物多样性丧失的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 人口趋势是全球生物多样性丧失的关键,区域差异化的驱动因素.
- 了解这些联系对于实现全球生物多样性目标和可持续发展目标15 (生命在陆地上) 是必不可少的.
- 这些发现为企业,政府和环保人士提供了可操作的见解,以减轻生物多样性下降的风险.
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