跌倒的趋势和决定因素:使用Geelong骨质疏松症研究的序列数据进行概括估计方程建模方法
Tewodros Yosef1, Julie A Pasco2, Monica C Tembo3
1Deakin University, IMPACT-Institute for Mental and Physical Health and Clinical Translation, Barwon Health, Geelong, Victoria, Australia; School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Mizan-Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia.
Injury
|March 26, 2025
概括
老年人中跌倒的风险正在增加. 这项研究发现年龄,性别,糖尿病和部屈曲强度是关键预测因素,突出了针对性预防策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 澳大利亚因人口老龄化而面临越来越多的跌倒事件.
- 预计到2057年,65岁及以上的成年人比例将大幅增加.
- 有效的防摔措施变得越来越重要.
研究的目的:
- 用纵向数据分析男性和女性的下降趋势.
- 确定人口老龄化下降的关键决定因素.
- 为了告知有针对性的防摔策略.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自吉隆骨质疏松症研究 (GOS) 的数据,对男性和女性进行了重复的随访.
- 收集自报摔倒数据 (过去12个月),以澳大利亚人口的年龄标准化.
- 采用多变量通用估计方程模型来识别落决定因素.
主要成果:
- 随着时间的推移,男性出现了年龄调整后的跌倒流行率下降;女性的流行率最初下降,然后略有增加.
- 年龄增加 (每年跌倒风险增加1%),女性性别 (52%更高的可能性) 和糖尿病 (69%的风险增加) 是显著的预测因素.
- 改善的部屈曲强度 (每增加1N/kg减少3%的风险) 与较低的跌倒风险有关.
结论:
- 秋季趋势在男性和女性之间有所不同,女性表现出更复杂的模式.
- 跌倒的关键预测因素包括年龄,性别,糖尿病和部屈曲强度.
- 建议进行量身定制的防摔,力量训练和综合糖尿病护理.
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