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评估模型的准确性,使用例行收集的群体数据来预测农场的流行率

Conor Barry¹, Esben Østergaard Eriksen¹, Kristian Ellingsen-Dalskau²

¹Department of Production Animal Clinical Sciences, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1433 Ås, Norway.

Journal of dairy science

|March 26, 2025

概括

爪健康指标 (CHI) 和常规群体数据 (RHD) 模型对于预测奶牛的流行率是不准确的. 这些模型虽然反映了爪子健康的一些方面,但未能捕捉到乳牛群中的多因素性质.

科学领域:

动物科学动物科学
兽医流行病学兽医流行病学
乳制品群管理乳制品群管理

背景情况:

是全球乳制品生产中一个重要的福利和经济问题.
准确量化的流行率对于有效的群体健康管理至关重要.
现有的指标,如爪子健康指标 (CHI),需要验证才能预测农场.

研究的目的:

评估爪子健康指标 (CHI) 对乳牛群的流行率的预测准确度.
开发和评估一种使用常规收集的群体数据 (RHD) 来预测的流行率的替代模型.
确定这些模型是否适用于实际群体健康管理.

主要方法:

这是一项涉及149个挪威自由养殖奶牛群的横截面研究.
单变量和多变量β回归模型被用于分析CHI和RHD变量与的流行情况.
使用一致性相关系数 (r) 和预测错误来评估模型的准确性.

主要成果:

较高的CHI得分与较低的发病率有关,但存在很大差异.
该CHI模型显示出高不准确性,一致性r为0.05.5.
替代的RHD模型显示精度有所提高,但仍不充分 (一致性r = 0.31).

结论:

无论是CHI还是RHD模型,都不适合准确预测奶牛场的流行情况.
这些模型没有完全捕捉到的复杂,多因素原因.
CHI可以作为一种工具来识别潜在的爪子健康问题,并吸引生产者参与,这需要进一步调查.

关键词:

动物福利指标动物福利指标贝塔回归的回归方法奶牛牛奶牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛牛这就是惰,惰,惰.登记数据登记数据登记数据

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