土地表面温度预测慢性阻塞性肺病导致的死亡率:基于气候变量和机器学习影响的研究
Alireza Mohammadi1, Bardia Mashhoodi2, Ali Shamsoddini3
1Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil.
Geospatial health
|March 27, 2025
概括
慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 的死亡率在空间上是集群的,并且随着夜间陆地表面温度 (LSTnt) 的上升而增加. 这些发现凸显了全球变暖对美国呼吸系统健康的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 全球变暖和气候变化带来了重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 的死亡率是与环境因素相关的日益关注的问题.
研究的目的:
- 调查2001年至2020年美国COPD死亡率的空间模式.
- 检查COPD死亡率与夜间陆地表面温度 (LSTnt) 之间的关系,作为变暖的指标.
主要方法:
- 使用县级,年龄调整后的COPD死亡率数据 (成人>25岁).
- 雇佣了全球莫兰的I用于空间自相对应分析.
- 应用基于森林的分类和回归 (FCR) 模型来预测使用Terra卫星LSTnt数据的死亡率.
主要成果:
- 在20年的研究期间,COPD死亡率在美国各县呈现出显著的空间聚类.
- 在COPD死亡率和LSTnt之间观察到正相关性 (莫兰I = 0.18).
- 鉴于COPD死亡率和LSTnt之间的空间关联在东部和东南部县被确定为最强,FCR模型实现了0.68.2的R2.
结论:
- 研究结果表明,全球变暖指标与美国COPD死亡率之间存在空间联系.
- 结果可以为制定有针对性的空间和公共卫生战略提供信息,以减轻气候变暖对呼吸系统健康的影响.
- 政策制定者可以利用这些数据来减少患有呼吸系统疾病的患者对气候变化的脆弱性.
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