MM3:区域规模定量滑坡风险分析的多式模式框架
William Pollock1,2, Joseph Wartman2
1Shannon & Wilson, Inc., 400N 34th St., Suite 100, Seattle, WA 98103, United States.
MethodsX
|March 27, 2025
概括
本研究提出了一个新的,适应性的区域滑坡风险分析框架,使得全球的土地利用规划和危险减轻更好. 它使用遥感和模块化方法进行高效的,无定位风险估计.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 自然危害评估自然危害评估
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 量化滑坡风险对于土地使用决策,危险减缓和公共教育至关重要.
- 现有的概率滑坡风险分析 (PLRA) 方法缺乏区域可转移性和全面范围.
- 对于区域PLRA,需要一种标准化,可扩展的方法.
研究的目的:
- 为区域概率滑坡风险分析 (PLRA) 开发一个无定位,计算效率高,模块化框架.
- 将现有的决定性方法扩展为可转移的,端到端的风险估计工具.
- 通过近全球的远程传感数据,实现PLRA的全球应用.
主要方法:
- 开发一个基于代码的模块的链接框架,用于分析山体滑坡风险.
- 确定性多式联运方法的适应,用于概率实现.
- 利用蒙特卡洛方法进行概率估计和近全球遥感输入.
主要成果:
- 为区域PLRA建立了一个模块化,位置无关的计算框架.
- 该框架允许使用随时可用的,接近全球的遥感数据进行风险估计.
- 模块化设计有助于未来的模型升级,并结合了各种滑坡场景.
结论:
- 开发的框架为区域滑坡风险评估提供了可转移和有效的解决方案.
- 接近全球的数据输入增强了该方法在全球的适用性.
- 这种方法支持知情地进行土地利用规划和自然危险管理.
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