社会规范对扩散动态的影响:电子烟使用行为模拟
Sarah E Piombo1, George G Vega Yon2, Thomas W Valente1
1University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
概括
针对社会规范的网络干预可以减缓青少年使用电子烟的速度. 改变15%网络的规范,特别是通过意见领袖,显著减少了有害行为的传播.
科学领域:
- 社交网络分析分析
- 公共卫生干预措施 公共卫生干预措施
- 传播创新理论的传播.
背景情况:
- 青少年使用电子烟是越来越严重的公共卫生问题.
- 社交网络在传播健康行为方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 了解网络动态是设计有效干预措施的关键.
研究的目的:
- 探索不同网络干预策略对青少年电子烟使用普及的影响.
- 模拟青少年社交网络中改变社会规范的影响.
- 确定最佳的网络准策略,以减少电子烟的使用.
主要方法:
- 利用基于来自南加州10所学校的潜在队列数据的网络模拟.
- 对于15%的网络节点来说,各种各样的社会规范 (支持,反对,中立) 和干预播种策略 (论领导,中间中心性,细分,随机选择).
- 在R和多变量通用线性模型中使用netdiffuseR包来分析扩散动态.
主要成果:
- 更高的网络密度和最初的电子烟流行率与扩散率的增加相关.
- 反电子烟规范显著降低了所有干预条件的平均患病率.
- 针对论领袖和高度中间的中心性节点,大大降低了电子烟使用率.
结论:
- 修改网络中很大一部分 (15%) 的社会规范,可以显著影响电子烟使用率.
- 针对社会规范的基于网络的干预措施有效地减缓了有害行为的传播.
- 个人和网络因素显著影响传播动态,为未来的公共卫生战略提供信息.
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