在民意动态中民主阻多数统治: 1. 不公开的偏见与对立者对抗
1CEVIPOF-Centre for Political Research, Sciences Po and CNRS, 1, Place Saint Thomas d'Aquin, 75007 Paris, France.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|March 28, 2025
概括
公共辩论的动态可以民主地将少数意见转变为多数意见,但这种情况很少见. 盖拉姆多数模型揭示了特定的偏见和相反的参数往往预先决定了结果,无论最初的公众支持如何.
科学领域:
- 社会动态 社会动态
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 形成一种意见的形成.
背景情况:
- 公共辩论对于民主社会至关重要.
- 了解意见动态是预测社会转变的关键.
- 加勒姆多数模型 (GMM) 提供了一个模拟意见传播的框架.
研究的目的:
- 调查少数意见在公共辩论中转变为多数意见的条件.
- 探索当地群体规模和特定参数对意见动态的影响.
- 分析模拟公共话语中意见形成的民主性质.
主要方法:
- 利用加拉姆多数模型 (GMM) 模拟意见动态.
- 探索了一个三维参数空间 (p0,k,x),表示初始支持,偏见和反面.
- 分析了当地讨论小组大小r=2,3和4的结果.
主要成果:
- 确定了大型参数领域,最初的少数民族在民主上成为多数.
- 发现结果往往是由偏见 (k) 和相反 (x) 参数预先决定的,独立于最初的意见 (p0).
- 揭示了一个新的交替政权在特定范围的相反比例.
结论:
- 从少数派的民主过渡到多数派的民主过渡比预期的少.
- 偏见和反论在很大程度上预先决定了公众辩论的结果.
- 关于基于这些发现对公众论的潜在操纵,有道德方面的考虑.
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