地震场景模拟和基于ANN的地面运动模型开发在伊朗西北部的北塔布里兹断层
Caglar Temiz1, S M Sajad Hussaini2, Shaghayegh Karimzadeh2
1Departments of Civil Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Türkiye.
概括
这项研究模拟了伊朗四个场景地震的地震危害,揭示了高水平的地面运动. 一个新的人工神经网络模型增强了对城市规划的地震影响预测.
科学领域:
- 地震地震学和地震危险评估.
- 计算地质物理学和地面运动模拟.
背景情况:
- 城市地区面临着严重的地震风险,由于缺乏历史地震数据和强大的监测网络,破坏往往会加剧.
- 地面运动模拟对于评估地震影响至关重要,但在验证和预测不确定性方面面临挑战.
研究的目的:
- 模拟伊朗四个场景地震 (Mw 6.87.7) 的地震地面运动,专注于北塔布里兹断层 (NTF).
- 为了研究断层平面破裂和低中心变化对地面运动的影响.
- 验证模拟并开发特定区域的地面运动模型 (GMM) 以改进危险评估.
主要方法:
- 随机有限缺陷地面运动模拟方法与动态角频率.
- 通过与现有地面运动模型 (GMMs) 的比较和跨期相关性分析进行验证.
- 使用人工神经网络 (ANN) 开发一个特定区域的GMM.
主要成果:
- 模拟表明地震危险水平很高,特别是在邻近北塔布里兹断层的东北地区.
- 使用修改的默卡利强度 (MMI) 尺度的强度图强调了需要采取紧急准备措施的需要.
- 开发的基于ANN的GMM准确地预测了峰值地面运动参数.
结论:
- 在像NTF地区这样的数据稀缺地区,地面运动模拟对于了解地震危险至关重要.
- 该研究强调,在易发生重大地震的城市地区,急需加强抗震准备.
- 一个可访问的在线平台,包括特定区域的GMM,可以帮助最终用户进行地震风险评估.
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