在1971年至2020年期间,基于模型的地理统计地图绘制了喀麦隆Onchocerca volvulus的流行情况
Yannick Niamsi-Emalio1,2, Hugues C Nana-Djeunga1, Claudio Fronterrè3
1Higher Institute for Scientific and Medical Research, Yaoundé, Cameroon.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|March 28, 2025
概括
尽管经过数十年的治疗,喀麦隆一些地区的瘤瘤病发病率仍然很高. 地图绘制确定了西南,沿海和中心的热点,需要加强对2030年消除目标的控制.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 地质统计学 在地质统计学
背景情况:
- 喀麦隆在非洲瘤瘤控制计划 (APOC) 关闭后,继续使用每年一次的社区导向治疗ivermectin (CDTI).
- 世界卫生组织的目标是到2030年,在12个国家中断球病的传播.
- 之前的测绘表明,喀麦隆的初始肉病流行率很高,尽管有超过二十年的CDTI,但在某些地区感染率仍然很高.
研究的目的:
- 绘制1971年至2020年喀麦隆Onchocerca volvulus流行情况的时空演变图.
- 为了确定持续高患上松病的地区.
- 引导加强干预并改进消除预测模型.
主要方法:
- 利用来自不同来源的1,404个地理引用的流行调查.
- 综合生物气候层与调查数据.
- 在三个时间段 (1971-2000,2001-2010,2011-2020) 中生成基于模型的微细菌患病率地理统计 (MBG) 地图.
主要成果:
- 随着时间的推移,患病率显著下降,平均预测患病率在2011-2020年低于20%,尽管数据稀疏.
- 在1971年至2000年和2001年至2010年观察到高患病率 (某些地区≥60%).
- 在西南部,沿海和中部地区确定了肉病热点.
结论:
- 结果与最近的MBG研究一致,支持加强控制工作.
- 时空趋势可以为传输模型提供信息,以改进桃病消除预测.
- 针对性干预对于确定热点至关重要,以实现2030年消除目标.
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