用社会经济和人口统计数据建模孟加拉国教育发展指数的空间和时间变化,2001-2021年:贝叶斯式方法
Afroza Sultana1, Akher Ali1, Md Sifat Ar Salan1
1Department of Statistics and Data Science, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
PloS one
|March 28, 2025
概括
孟加拉国的教育发展指数 (EDI) 变化与时空因素有关. 健康,收入,学校教育,人口密度和依赖率显著影响各地区的教育进步.
科学领域:
- 教育发展指数 (EDI)
- 时间空间分析.
- 人权在教育中的作用
背景情况:
- 教育发展指数 (EDI) 对于评估全球教育系统至关重要.
- 在EDI中显著的时空变化需要详细检查.
- 了解这些差异是通过教育确保基本人权的关键.
研究的目的:
- 调查教育发展指数 (EDI) 与孟加拉国的各种时空变量之间的关系.
- 确定影响地方教育发展的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了孟加拉国64个地区 (2001-2021) 的识字率 (EDI) 的二次数据.
- 采用贝叶斯的时空建模,包括线性,ANOVA,AR1和AR2模型.
- 应用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛 (MCMC) 和模型选择标准 (DIC,WAIC,RMSE) 进行最佳模型识别.
主要成果:
- 自动回归"AR1"时间模型表现出卓越的性能.
- 在EDI中发现了显著的空间 (ρ=0.994) 和时间 (ρ=0.347) 变化.
- 健康指数,收入指数,预期的上学年数,人口密度和依赖率成为关键因素.
结论:
- 在EDI的空间变化可以确定需要改善教育的地区.
- 政策制定者可以利用这些发现来解决关键的影响因素.
- 基于时空空间分析的有针对性的干预措施可以提高教育成果.
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