土地使用变化和气候动态对Munneru河流域水文成分的综合影响,印度
Kotapati Narayana Loukika1, Venkata Reddy Keesara1, Eswar Sai Buri1
1Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Warangal, 506004, India.
Journal of environmental management
|March 28, 2025
概括
未来的水供应受到土地利用变化和气候变化的影响. 综合这些因素显示流量大幅增加,需要改进洪水管理和适应性水源战略.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 有效的水资源管理需要了解土地利用和土地覆盖 (LU&LC) 变化和气候变化 (CC) 对河流盆地水文学的综合影响.
- 准确地将LU&LC和气候预测整合到水文模型中,由于固有的不确定性,这是一项重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估LU&LC和气候变化对河流流域未来水文条件的协同效应.
- 根据各种未来的LU&LC和气候变化场景来预测时空水的可用性.
主要方法:
- 未来的LU&LC场景使用Dyna-CLUE模型进行了预测.
- 在SSP245,SSP370和SSP585场景下的CMIP6气候数据是使用可靠组合平均值 (REA) 方法进行组合平均值.
- 土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型在1983-2017年期间在SWAT-CUP中使用SUFI2算法进行校准和验证.
主要成果:
- 在所有SSP场景中,预计在未来的时间段中,流量,含水层补充和蒸发会增加.
- 当与气候变化相结合时,LU&LC场景2显示对流量和充电的影响比单独的气候变化更大.
- 流量大幅增加,特别是在近期和中期的7月和6月,预计远期将进一步大幅增加.
结论:
- 未来的气候和LU&LC变化将显著增加流量,特别是在8月至11月期间,需要积极的洪水管理策略.
- 该研究成功地整合了动态的LU&LC预测和整体气候数据,提供了改进的水文预测.
- 研究结果为开发盆地综合水利管理战略提供了基础,并可应用于全球类似地区.
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