基于代理的建模用于储水池的需求管理,考虑不确定性下的社会和水文相互作用
Ali Ehsanitabar1, Yousef Hassanzadeh2, Mohammadtaghi Aalami1
1Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
Journal of environmental management
|March 28, 2025
概括
实施水需求管理策略显著提高了水库水位,即使人口增长. 节水设施被证明是最有效的,确保供应并防止枯竭.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
背景情况:
- 水需求管理对于可持续利用水资源至关重要.
- 水库管理面临城市,农业和工业用水需求增加的挑战.
- 综合社会和水文因素是有效水资源管理的关键.
研究的目的:
- 模拟各种水需求管理策略对水库水量的影响.
- 在案例研究中评估不同需求减少场景的有效性.
- 分析社会和水文环境中的不确定性,以实现稳健的水资源管理.
主要方法:
- 基于代理的建模被用来模拟水需求和供应动态.
- 调查问卷被用来确定参与需求减少场景的参与率.
- 用水文平衡方程和蒙特卡洛模拟来进行分析.
主要成果:
- 所有经过测试的需求管理场景都导致了与没有管理的基线相比,更高的储量.
- 场景满足了水需求,并产生了每年0.4至0.7亿米的余.
- 节水设施场景最大限度地提高了水库容量和余,即使在不确定性条件下,也防止了耗尽.
结论:
- 水需求管理策略在提高水库可持续性方面是有效的.
- 提供节水设施是最大限度地提高水库容量和确保水安全的最有影响力的策略.
- 综合建模方法对于理解复杂的水资源系统有价值.
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