基于价值的合同什么时候会增加价值? 来自概率模拟的洞察力
Rebecca K Metcalfe1, Karen Geary2, Mark Trusheim2
1Core Clinical Sciences Inc., Vancouver, BC, Canada; Centre for Advancing Health Outcomes, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
概括
概率模拟可以通过量化财务利益来简化基于价值的合同. 这些模拟有助于管理制造商和付款人之间的风险共享复杂性,以获得更好的结果.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 药品市场的准入 药品市场的准入
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 基于价值的合同 (VBC) 或基于结果的协议,将退款与患者的结果联系起来,在制造商和支付人之间提供风险共享.
- 病毒细胞细胞的有限吸收部分归因于它们固有的复杂性.
- 概率模拟提供了一种新的方法来简化VBC规划和财务评估.
研究的目的:
- 探索概率模拟在促进基于价值的合同的规划中的实用性.
- 根据治疗效果,折扣比例和患者数量来描述VBCs的净财务收益.
- 评估模拟导向规划如何有助于谈判VBCs.
主要方法:
- 模拟单个里程碑基于价值的合同,用于15或100名患者,每场景使用10,000次代.
- 分析了来自不同规模 (30,100,500名患者) 的临床试验的二元治疗响应率 (50%,75%,90%).
- 估计相当的贴现率和描述性比较的模拟结果.
主要成果:
- 随着信息性的临床试验规模的减少,潜在的VBC结局范围越来越广.
- 治疗的患者数量,而不是临床证据的不确定性,是潜在的折扣金额的主要驱动因素.
- 模拟结果突出了支付人和制造商之间的差异性风险共享可能性.
结论:
- 制造商可以从多个VBC与各种付款人的风险聚合中受益.
- 虚拟银行涉及复杂的权衡和不确定性,可以通过模拟导向规划更好地管理.
- 模拟工具可以量化财务利益,帮助谈判和采用VBCs.
相关概念视频
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