在西班牙队列中识别风险因素和预测长期COVID
Antonio Guillén-Teruel1, Jose L Mellina-Andreu1, Gabriel Reina2
1Department of Information and Communication Engineering, University of Murcia, Murcia, 30100, Spain.
Scientific reports
|March 29, 2025
概括
接种疫苗显著降低了患长期COVID (LC-19) 的风险,mRNA疫苗提供了更多的保护. 现在可以在线获得LC-19风险因素的预测模型.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 以前对长期COVID (LC-19) 的研究往往缺乏关于风险因素,性别分类和适当的LC-19分类的全面数据.
- 现有的研究还没有充分探索LC-19发展中的人口因素,并发症,急性症状和疫苗接种状态之间的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查与LC-19相关的人口因素,并发症和急性症状.
- 为了比较患有和没有LC-19的患者之间的这些因素.
- 评估COVID-19疫苗接种对LC-19风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了西班牙东南部10家医院超过675,126名患者的临床和住院记录,症状和疫苗接种细节.
- 计算年龄和性别调整的几率比率 (AOR),以确定LC-19的风险和保护因素.
- 开发和验证LC-19风险的预测模型.
主要成果:
- 女性性别,胸痛和急性感染期间的低血压被确定为LC-19的重要危险因素.
- 接种疫苗显示出对LC-19的强烈保护作用 (AOR = 0.10,调整后p < 0.001),mRNA疫苗显示出比病毒载体疫苗更大的疗效 (AOR = 0.48).
- 开发的LC-19预测模型实现了73%的平衡精度和0.80.80的ROC-AUC.
结论:
- 在感染之前接种疫苗是减少长期COVID的可能性的最关键因素.
- 该研究确定了与LC-19相关的关键人口统计,症状和并发症因素.
- 基于这些发现,开发了一种可访问的在线计算器来预测LC-19风险.
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