相关实验视频
Updated: May 10, 2026

04:57
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
累积风险作为社会背景的标记
Kyle Treiber1, Per-Olof H Wikström1,2
1Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Criminal behaviour and mental health : CBMH
|March 29, 2025
概括
犯罪中的累积风险是由社会背景解释的,而不是累积的因果关系. 犯罪倾向和暴露等直接原因完全解释了累积风险和犯罪参与之间的联系.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
- 发展心理学 发展心理学
背景情况:
- 解决法林顿的挑战,将风险因素研究与解释理论联系起来.
- 提出累积风险反映了影响犯罪因果过程的社会背景.
- 解释了犯罪中累积风险的统计现象.
研究的目的:
- 测试情境行动理论的直接原因 (犯罪倾向,犯罪性暴露) 是否解释了累积风险与犯罪的关系.
- 调查家庭,社区,学校和同行环境在犯罪参与中的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用来自彼得堡青少年和年轻成年人发展研究 (PADS+) 的数据.
- 包括12至24岁 (2003-2016) 的纵向数据.
- 数据来源:家长/参与者问卷,时空预算,社区调查,英国人口普查,土地使用数据库.
主要成果:
- 累积风险解释了犯罪发生率/频率差异的7-8%.
- 犯罪倾向和犯罪性暴露解释了52-58%的差异.
- 直接原因完全调解了累积风险和犯罪之间的关联.
结论:
- 累积风险反映了社会背景,而不是累积因果关系.
- 未来的研究应该确定影响犯罪因果关系过程的社会背景特征.
- 强调社会背景在理解犯罪方面的重要性.
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