通过多年气候信息支持粮食安全:为南非发展共同体共同生产气候服务
Carlos Delgado-Torres1, Sara Octenjak1, Raül Marcos-Matamoros2
1Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain.
The Science of the total environment
|March 30, 2025
概括
共同生产气候服务通过提供可操作的多年气候预测,提高了坦桑尼亚和马拉维的粮食安全. 这种方法改善了气候适应战略的决策.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化和变化对全球粮食安全构成重大威胁.
- 多年气候变化加剧了粮食安全的挑战,需要长期的适应战略.
- 预测技能有限,多年预测的不确定性阻碍了它们在决策中的使用.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用多年预测共同生产气候服务,以加强坦桑尼亚和马拉维的粮食安全.
- 开发一个交互式在线平台,为决策者提供可操作的气候信息.
- 为了证明联合制作在满足对多年气候信息的需求方面具有价值.
主要方法:
- 气候服务的联合生产,涉及利益相关者.
- 开发一个交互式在线平台,用于气候预测 (温度,降水,极端,干旱).
- 提供预测质量指标和共同设计的公告,并通过研讨会和反会议补充.
主要成果:
- 在坦桑尼亚和马拉维成功联合生产为粮食安全量身定制的气候服务.
- 一个在线平台有效地提供决定性和概率性的多年气候预测.
- 利益相关方的参与证明有效地使气候服务与用户需求保持一致.
结论:
- 联合生产是一种可行的方法,可以满足对支持粮食安全决策的多年气候信息的需求.
- 通过利益相关者的参与来定制气候服务,提高了它们的实际应用和可靠性.
- 从该项目中获得的见解为推进其他部门和环境中的气候服务提供了战略.
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