使用多种类型的交通冲突对高速公路水平曲线上的撞击估计的双变贝叶斯层次极端值建模
Zhenlin Hu1, Pengru Wei1, Lin Sheng1
1School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, 73 Huanghe Street, Nangang District, Harbin 150090, PR China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|March 30, 2025
概括
一个新的双变贝叶斯模型通过考虑后端和侧面撞击事件之间的相关性,准确地估计了高速公路曲线撞击事件. 这种方法改善了与分析风险单独的模型相比,对崩的预测.
科学领域:
- 交通工程是交通工程.
- 道路交通安全 道路交通安全
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 高速公路的水平曲线由于对齐和可见性问题而带来了重大驾驶安全挑战.
- 车辆在曲线上的相互作用可能导致相关的,多种类型的碰撞风险,使单独的风险建模不准确.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个双变的贝叶斯分层极端值模型 (BBHMS),用于估计高速公路曲线上的相关撞车风险.
- 为了比较BBHMS与后方和侧面碰撞的单变模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种双变极值模型,整合了两个冲突指标及其相关性.
- 实施贝叶斯层次结构,以结合跨站点的流量冲突,包括共变量和异质性.
- 应用单变量贝叶斯层次极值模型 (UBHMS) 和BBHMS到Yinkun高速公路数据.
主要成果:
- 与UBHMS相比,BBHMS在撞击估计方面表现出卓越的准确性和精度,参数标准偏差较小.
- 确定了影响碰撞风险的关键共变量:大型车辆的增加和速度变化增加了风险,而汽车跟踪和改变车道的车辆影响了特定的碰撞类型.
- 超速和车道空间占用被发现可以降低后端碰撞的风险.
结论:
- 双变量建模对于准确评估高速公路曲线上的相关撞车风险至关重要.
- 特定的交通和几何因素显著影响碰撞的可能性,为安全改进提供了洞察力.
- 垂直和水平曲线之间的相互作用会影响碰撞风险,而垂直曲线比顶部曲线带来更高的风险.
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