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恐怖主义的景观变化:50年的时空空间分析
Shupeng Lyu1, Chen Qian1, Ching-Hung Lee1
1School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China.
概括
从1970年到2020年,全球恐怖主义风险经历了四个阶段的演变,大多数国家都经历了恐怖主义趋势的增加. 在空间上,恐怖主义集群和转移,形成独特的全球热点.
科学领域:
- 地理分析 地理分析.
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 全球安全研究全球安全研究.
背景情况:
- 了解全球恐怖主义的时空动态对于有效的反恐战略至关重要.
- 现有的研究往往缺乏综合的地理视角来分析恐怖主义模式.
- 全球恐怖主义数据库 (GTD) 为纵向分析提供了广泛的数据.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1970年到2020年全球恐怖主义的时空进化特征.
- 识别恐怖主义的不同时间阶段和空间模式.
- 通过整合地理方法,增强对恐怖主义动态的理解.
主要方法:
- 时间分析的曼-肯达尔趋势测试.
- 空间自相对应,核密度估计和标准偏差圆用于空间分析.
- 在全球恐怖主义数据库 (GTD) 中分析了来自176个国家的171,327起恐怖事件.
主要成果:
- 全球恐怖主义风险呈现出四个不同的时间阶段:新兴 (1970-1991),下降 (1992-2000),肆虐 (2001-2014) 和减弱 (2015-2020).
- 大多数国家 (117个) 的恐怖主义风险呈现上升趋势,而56个国家呈现下降趋势.
- 恐怖主义的分布在空间上是集群的,重心和主导方向都在变化,形成"两个主要的核心圈和多个子中心"作为热点.
结论:
- 全球恐怖主义在过去的五十年中经历了显著的时空演变.
- 恐怖主义的空间分布以热点的聚合和动态转移为特征.
- 调查结果为针对性干预和全球安全政策提供了关键的见解.
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