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气候遗产对灭绝动态的影响:系统审查
Gregor H Mathes1,2,3, Catalina Pimiento1,4,5, Wolfgang Kiessling3
1Paleontological Institute and Museum, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Cambridge prisms. Extinction
|March 31, 2025
概括
气候遗产,即过去气候对当前物种灭绝的影响,经常被忽视. 研究表明,它对灭绝风险和人口动态产生重大影响,这对于了解气候变化影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 了解物种灭绝的驱动因素是一个关键的生态目标.
- 当代生物多样性的动态可能受到过去的气候条件的影响,这种现象被称为"气候遗产".
- 气候遗产对灭绝动态的整体影响仍然在很大程度上是未知的.
研究的目的:
- 进行系统审查,总结气候遗产对灭绝动态的影响.
- 评估在灭绝研究中气候遗产考虑的普遍性.
- 评估气候遗产对灭绝风险和相关生态过程的量化影响.
主要方法:
- 系统的文献审查.
- 对研究的分析,研究了灭绝动态,气候和气候遗产之间的关系.
- 综合了从量化气候遗留影响的研究中得出的结论.
主要成果:
- 关于灭绝动态和气候的研究中,只有10%考虑了气候遗产,3%量化了它们的影响.
- 在量化气候遗产的七项研究中,有六项报告说,模型对灭绝动态进行了改进.
- 量化遗留效应显示,在特定的温度变化场景下,灭绝风险增加了高达40%,并影响了物种适应,种群动态和未成年人招募.
结论:
- 人们普遍认为,气候遗产是塑造灭绝动态的关键因素.
- 气候遗产通过诸如利基保护主义,生理值,时间滞后和级联效应等机制影响物种对人类气候变化的脆弱性.
- 将气候遗产纳入生物多样性评估对于全面了解气候变化的生态后果至关重要.
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