评估不同数据源的预测性能,以在罗德岛的机器学习中预测邻里层面的过量死亡
John C Halifax1, Bennett Allen2, Claire Pratty3
1Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Preventive medicine
|March 31, 2025
概括
使用简单的模型预测致命的过量服用是可行的. 将美国社区调查 (ACS) 数据与另一个来源相结合,有效地将过量预防资源引导到高风险社区.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 预防过量服用需要精确的资源配置.
- 预测分析可以识别有针对性的干预高风险社区.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种数据源的预测能力,以预测罗德岛的致命过量服用.
- 开发一个可复制的模型,用于指导过量预防资源.
主要方法:
- 评估了来自六个来源的七种数据组合,包括ACS,EMS和PDMP.
- 使用线性回归和随机森林与嵌套交叉验证.
- 通过平均二次误差和过量捕获率来评估性能.
主要成果:
- 使用ACS加上一个额外的数据源的线性模型的性能与使用所有数据的模型相比相当.
- 结合EMS,PDMP或监狱释放数据与ACS的模型实现了过量捕获的预定义目标.
结论:
- 通过可访问的数据,可以预测社区级致命过量剂的预防.
- 使用ACS和另一个行政数据源的简单模型为其他司法管辖区提供了一个模板.
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