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安第斯山脉未来的冰川-水文变化:关注到2050年的近期预测
Alexis Caro1,2, Thomas Condom3, Antoine Rabatel3
1Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Grenoble-INP, Grenoble, France. alexis.caro.paredes@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|March 31, 2025
概括
预计到本世纪中叶,安第斯冰川的排水量将大幅减少,特别是在热带和干燥的安第斯山脉. 大多数水域在2030年之前将达到水量峰值,因此需要区域水文研究来管理水资源.
科学领域:
- 冰川学和水文学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 了解冰川排水对于安第斯山脉的水资源管理,灾害预防和生态系统保护至关重要.
- 局限的区域研究阻碍了对安第斯冰川流失动态的理解.
研究的目的:
- 根据气候变化情景,预测未来安第斯冰川流失和峰值水流量时间的变化.
- 评估778个安第斯河流域的冰川流量区域差异.
- 通过突出关键研究需求,为水资源管理战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了八个合模型相互比较项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型进行气候预测 (1990-2049年).
- 采用开放全球冰川模型 (OGGM) 来模拟冰川流水和峰值水.
- 对778个安第斯流域的两个共享社会经济路径 (SSP1-2.6和SSP8.5) 的预测进行了分析.
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪中叶,安第斯山脉 (热带安第斯山脉:+0.7°C) 将出现变暖,南安第斯山脉的降水量将略有下降 (-1至-3%).
- 预计到2030-2049年,热带安第斯山脉 (-43%) 和干燥安第斯山脉 (-37%) 的冰川流量将大幅减少.
- 超过95%的水域预计将在2030年之前达到峰值,在干燥的安第斯山脉有显著的差异 (例如,阿图埃尔: -62%,图邦加托: +32%).
结论:
- 冰川流失的区域差异至关重要,特别是在智利和阿根廷的干燥安第斯山脉.
- 迫切需要增加资金用于安第斯山脉的水文研究.
- 目前和未来水资源的有效管理取决于了解这些区域差异.
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