缺乏寒冷的温度正在推动近期高暑期的温暖化,在南方的落基山脉
M C A Torbenson1,2, E Martinez Del Castillo3, F Reinig3
1Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany. mtorbens@uni-mainz.de.
International journal of biometeorology
|March 31, 2025
概括
一个长达483年的树环记录显示,最近8月的最高气温 (Tmax) 是350年来最高的. 这种变暖趋势是由寒冷的夏季减少所驱动的,而不是极端热量增加.
科学领域:
- 登德罗年代学 登德罗年代学
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 树环为重建过去的气候条件提供了有价值的代理数据.
- 高海拔的恩格曼杉树是温度变化的敏感指标.
研究的目的:
- 为科罗拉多州中部开发一个长期的8月最大温度 (Tmax) 重建.
- 评估树环特性与气候变量之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用来自科罗拉多州中部的恩格尔曼杉来构建一个483年的树环时间表.
- 对木最大密度 (MXD) 和树环宽度的分析.
- 基于MXD的八月Tmax的单个预测器重建模型的开发.
主要成果:
- 在过去的127年中,MXD和区域8月Tmax之间发现了强烈的相关性.
- 基于MXD的重建解释了1662-2021年8月Tmax变异的50%以上.
- 过去的温度变化包括寒冷阶段,例如20世纪30年代,在仪器记录范围之外.
- 最近几十年 (自20世纪90年代以来) 显示了至少350年来最温暖的8月Tmax.
结论:
- 树环记录提供了过去8月Tmax的坚实重建.
- 最近的变暖在过去350年的背景下是前所未有的.
- 变暖趋势主要受到寒冷夏季事件减少的影响.
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