一种没有实验室的诺米图,可以预测晚期癌症临终关怀患者的生存率
Haopeng Li1, Xiaofeng Chen1, Xubin Jing1
1Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou, University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
BMC public health
|April 1, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种无实验室的诺姆图,用于预测晚期癌症临终关怀患者的存活率. 该工具准确估计了30,45,60天的生存率,有助于临床决策.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 抚慰性护理是一种缓解性护理.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 癌症是全球主要的死亡原因,中国的发病率和死亡率很高.
- 中国的临终关怀患者往往缺乏实验室数据,阻碍了准确的生存预测.
- 现有的生存预测模型严重依赖实验室参数,限制了它们在宿舍环境中的适用性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种无实验室预测模型,用于估计患有晚期癌症的宿舍患者的生存率.
- 创建一个名图和在线计算器来预测30,45,60天的生存期.
- 在不依赖实验室指标的情况下,提高绝症癌症患者的生存预测准确度.
主要方法:
- 对4229名临终关怀病人的数据 (2008-2018) 的回顾性分析.
- 在训练套件 (70%) 上使用最少绝对收缩和选择操作员 (LASSO) 技术开发名录和基于网络的计算器.
- 在测试组 (30%) 中验证名录,使用接收器操作特征曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析.
主要成果:
- 确定了八个关键预测因素:生活质量,卡诺夫斯基绩效评分,性别,疼痛持续时间,厌食症,腹部膨胀,短眠症和.
- 诺米图表显示出良好的预测准确性,在测试组中,曲线下的面积 (AUC) 值为0.7538 (30天),0.7342 (45天) 和0.7324 (60天).
- 该模型显示出出色的校准和显著的临床净益,如决策曲线分析所示.
结论:
- 成功开发了一种新的,无实验室的名图和附带的基于网络的计算器.
- 该工具准确地预测了末期癌症的宿舍患者的生存率.
- 这项创新有助于改善癌症息治疗中的生存预测和临床管理.
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