机器学习模型的开发和验证,用于在线预测心力衰竭的风险:基于常规血液测试及其衍生参数
Jianchen Pu1, Yimin Yao2, Xiaochun Wang2
1Medical Laboratory, Nanxun Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Huzhou, China.
Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine
|April 1, 2025
概括
机器学习模型将白细胞和中性粒细胞等关键血液指标确定为心力衰竭 (HF) 的危险因素. 一个随机森林模型准确地预测了HF,有助于早期干预和改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 生物医学信息学 生物医学信息学
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 心力衰竭 (HF) 是一个全球性的健康问题,患病率和死亡率很高.
- 常规血液数据分析提供了识别HF模式的潜力.
- 机器学习 (ML) 可以揭示临床数据中的复杂关系.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估使用常规血液数据预测心力衰竭的ML模型.
- 为了确定与HF风险相关的特定血液指标.
- 评估基于ML的HF预测工具的临床实用性.
主要方法:
- 统计分析了226名HF患者和对照组的常规血液数据.
- 通过LASSO回归,从血液参数中识别HF风险因素.
- 评估八个ML算法,包括随机森林,用于预测准确性.
- 使用独立的外部队列和性能指标 (如AUC和校准曲线) 的验证.
主要成果:
- 白细胞,中性细胞,红细胞,血红蛋白,血小板和单细胞与淋巴细胞的比率被确定为HF风险因素.
- 随机森林模型显示出卓越的预测性能.
- 曲线下的高面积 (AUC) 值 (0.948在验证中,1000在测试中,0.945在外部队列中) 表明强大的预测能力.
- 校准和决策曲线分析证实了该模型的准确性和临床适用性.
结论:
- 常规血液参数可以有效地被ML模型利用来预测心力衰竭.
- 开发的随机森林模型显示高精度和临床相关性HF预测.
- 早期识别高风险患者是可行的,使及时干预减少HF发病率.
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