中国胃癌负担的趋势:基于GBD 2021的Joinpoint和APC分析
Xiangying Xie1, Juan Su1, Wei Wang1
1Department of Gastroenterology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology
|April 1, 2025
概括
三十年来,中国的胃癌负担有所下降,发病率和死亡率显著下降. 然而,与全球平均水平相比,总体疾病负担仍然很高,这构成了未来的公共卫生挑战.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 对胃癌负担的全面评估对于制定有效的控制策略至关重要.
- 这项研究分析了中国胃癌的长期趋势和流行病学特征.
研究的目的:
- 评估过去三十年来中国胃癌的疾病负担.
- 分析流行病学特征并预测未来的趋势.
- 将中国的胃癌趋势与全球模式进行比较.
主要方法:
- 使用的2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 方法和数据.
- 分析了使用DisMod-MR 2-1.的流行,发病率,死亡率,YLLs,YLDs和DALYs.
- 用于趋势解释和预测的员工结合点和年龄时期队列 (APC) 分析.
主要成果:
- 每10万人口的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率从1990年到2021年有所下降.
- 年龄标准化DALY率显著下降,从每10万人中的1181.61人降至501.26人.
- 年平均百分比变化表明发病率 (-1.61%) 流行率 (-0.50%) 和死亡率 (-2.44%) 的下降.
结论:
- 预计在未来十年内,中国的胃癌发病率和死亡率将继续下降.
- 尽管下降,但中国的整体胃癌负担预计仍将高于全球平均水平.
- 中国人口庞大和人口老龄化为控制胃癌带来了持续的公共卫生挑战.
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