环境温度与中国贵阳的非意外死亡率之间的关联:时间序列分析 (2013-2023)
Xuanhao Chen1, Minmin Su1, Minlan Yuan1
1Guizhou Center For Disease Control And Prevention, Guizhou, China.
PloS one
|April 1, 2025
概括
不理想的环境温度显著增加死亡风险,轻度高温导致死亡人数最多. 极度寒冷带来长期的风险,影响呼吸系统健康,老年人和男性最容易受到伤害.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化导致全球气温上升,人们越来越担心环境温度对人类健康的影响.
- 极端天气事件,如热浪和寒冷时期更频繁和严重,与死亡率增加相关.
- 了解与温度相关的健康影响对于公共卫生干预和预测未来负担至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计过去十年在贵阳的极端温度带来的风险和死亡负担.
- 分析热和冷,以及温和与极端温度的贡献.
- 确定易受温度相关死亡率影响的群体.
主要方法:
- 从2013-2023年收集的每日天气和死亡率数据.
- 用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 进行危险估计.
- 计算了各种温度类别 (温和热/寒冷,极端热/寒冷) 的归因分数和数字.
主要成果:
- 观察到U形温度与死亡率的关联,除了年轻年龄组.
- 极低的温度显示长时间的影响 (18天) 与相对风险较高 (1.24%) 与极高的温度 (1.18%) 相比.
- 不理想的温度占死亡率的9.21%;温和的热量对整体死亡负担贡献最大.
结论:
- 极端寒冷比极端热带带来更大的累积风险和更持久的影响.
- 不理想的温度,特别是温和的热量,对死亡率有很大影响,尤其是呼吸道死亡.
- 男性和65岁以上的个人被确定为特别脆弱的人群.
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