澳大利亚多个社会人口结构层的新型烟草预测模型
Samantha Howe1, Tim Wilson1, Coral Gartner2
1Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia.
International journal of epidemiology
|April 1, 2025
概括
澳大利亚 澳大利亚 澳大利亚
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 健康 公平 卫生 公平
背景情况:
- 澳大利亚的目标是到2030年,烟草的终点目标是每天吸烟率≤5%,每天吸烟率≤5%.
- 目前的目标忽视了社会人口差异,有可能造成持续的不平等.
- 这项研究模拟了各组未来的吸烟率,以评估最终的公平性.
研究的目的:
- 根据社会人口统计学因素预测日常吸烟的流行情况.
- 为了比较预计的比率与澳大利亚2030年烟草终结目标.
- 为了突出潜在的持续吸烟差异.
主要方法:
- 使用模拟回火来估计历史吸烟率 (2001-2023) 跨性别,年龄,偏远,社会经济地位和土著地位.
- 应用后勤回归来预测30年的队列吸烟率.
- 分析了15个层次的偏远和社会经济地位的组合.
主要成果:
- 预计到2030年,人口吸烟率将达到7.8% (通常情况下).
- 在15个偏远地区/社会经济层中,只有2个实现了到2030年达到5%的目标.
- 在最弱势的偏远地区 (SES1) 预计患病率最高 (到2030年为34.6%).
结论:
- 没有公平的关注,尽管实现了最终目标,但吸烟差距仍将持续.
- 建模方法为评估跨社会人口统计层面的烟草控制干预措施提供了基线.
- 该框架可以适应分析其他地区的吸烟不平等现象,并纳入不确定性.
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