基于水质参数的预测,在河口溶解的氧气使用先进的可解释组合机器学习
Xingda Chen1, Chenyao Zhao2, Jinyue Chen3
1Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510640, China; Key Laboratory of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, GuangDong Engineering Technology Research Center of Remote Sensing Big Data Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510070, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
一个可解释的集体机器学习框架准确地预测河口中的溶氧 (DO). 这项研究揭示了影响DO变化的关键水质参数,并为沿海缺氧管理提供了见解.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水质管理水质管理
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 溶解氧 (DO) 对河口和海湾健康至关重要,但由于人类活动和复杂的水质参数 (WQP) 相互作用,预测受到挑战.
- 现有的水质模型和统计方法缺乏准确性,无法阐明WQP对DO的影响机制.
- 了解WQP的影响对于沿海生态系统中有效的低氧管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个可解释的集体机器学习 (EML) 框架,用于在中国六个河口准确的DO预测.
- 阐明各种WQP对DO变化的影响机制.
- 为改善沿海河流中缺氧管理策略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 为DO预测开发了一个可解释的集体机器学习 (EML) 框架.
- 该框架使用了历史数据 (2020年11月至2023年12月),包括DO和各种WQPs.
- 使用夏普利添加剂解释 (SHAP) 值来确定特征重要性和影响机制.
主要成果:
- 在EML框架中,特别是堆叠模型 (SM),表现出高精度 (R2=0.71,Jilong河RMSE=0.55),表现优于其他模型.
- DO (1-3天) 和水温 (WT) 的滞后特征是关键预测因素,其中1天的滞后DO具有最显著的影响.
- 影响每日DO的因素因河流而异;EC,pH和TN一般具有积极影响,而WT,NH3-N和TP具有负面影响.
结论:
- 开发的EML框架为DO预测和理解WQP影响提供了一个强大的和可解释的方法.
- 滞后的DO和WT是DO波动的关键驱动因素,其特定的值和相互作用表现出空间异质性.
- 这些发现为有针对性的缺氧管理和沿海河口的生态健康保护提供了宝贵的见解.
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