模拟改善天花疫苗接种覆盖率对秘鲁临床和经济结果的影响
John C Lang1, Colleen Burgess2, Salome Samant2
1Health Economic and Decision Sciences (HEDS), Biostatistics and Research Decision Sciences (BARDS), Merck Canada Inc., Kirkland, QC, Canada.
Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics
|April 2, 2025
概括
增加秘鲁的天花疫苗接种覆盖率可以减少病例和医疗保健成本. 疫苗接种率的快速增加带来了更好的临床结果,每人成本增加最小.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 秘鲁的通用麻疹疫苗接种计划 (UVV) 覆盖率很低 (2022年覆盖率为66%).
- 动态传播模型 (DTM) 对于评估疫苗计划影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟秘鲁日益增加的麻疹疫苗接种率 (VCRs) 的临床和经济影响.
- 为了比较六个UVV策略,目标是1-5年内实现80-90%的VCR,与当前的VCR相比.
主要方法:
- 使用了与秘鲁人口,成本和流行病学数据进行参数化的动态传播模型 (DTM).
- 模拟了六种UVV策略,在1,2或5年 (2023-2032年) 的时间内,VCR从65.6%增加到80-90% (2023-2032年).
- 评估临床结果 (水病例,门诊/住院访问) 和经济结果 (付款人角度成本) 与敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 在10年内,所有6种策略都避免了13-25%的水病例和13-24%的门诊/住院病例.
- 较快的VCR增长 (1-2年) 与较慢的增长 (5年) 相比,避免了更多病例.
- 从付款人的角度来看,增加的视频录像机导致12-21%的成本增加 (每人每年0.05-0.08美元).
结论:
- 增加秘鲁的水VCR改善了临床结果,减少了疾病负担.
- 更快的视频录像机改进带来了更大的临床效益,但人均成本略高.
- 模型的结果是强大的,支持有针对性的干预措施,以提高天花疫苗接种范围.
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