高收入亚太地区的胰腺癌:基于人口的研究
Donghong Wang1,2, Zhibin Ma1,2
1Department of Internal Medicine, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, China.
Cancer control : journal of the Moffitt Cancer Center
|April 3, 2025
概括
从1990年到2021年,胰腺癌负担在高收入亚太地区增加. 尽管出现上升趋势,但预计发病率将下降,这凸显了针对吸烟,饮酒和肥胖的预防策略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 胰腺癌是一个重大的全球健康和经济挑战.
- 高收入亚太地区人口的流行病学模式和时间趋势仍未得到充分分析.
研究的目的:
- 系统地分析高收入亚太地区胰腺癌的流行病学特征和时间趋势.
- 使用年龄-时期-队列建模来预测未来的发病率.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据库进行跨国分析.
- 员工联合点回归以评估疾病负担的时间趋势.
- 应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型用于发病率预测 (2022-2036年).
主要成果:
- 2021年,高收入亚太地区的患病率,死亡率和DALY年龄标准化率高于亚洲平均水平.
- 年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 从2002年到2011年在男性和女性中呈现逐渐增加.
- 发病率和死亡率随着年龄的增长而显著增加,特别是在60岁以上.
- 预计男性和女性的ASIR将从2021年到2036年减少.
结论:
- 从1990年到2021年,在高收入亚太地区观察到胰腺癌负担 (发病率,流行率,死亡率,DALYs) 的全面上升趋势.
- 尽管有历史上的增加,但预计未来的发病率将下降.
- 强调了预防策略的关键重要性,专注于可修改的风险因素,如吸烟,饮酒和肥胖,由于癌症的预后不佳.
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