在气候变化下,基于优化的MaxEnt模型,预测中国的Verbena officinalis潜在息地
Shimao Chen1, Zixuan Jiang1, Jia Song1
1College of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|April 3, 2025
概括
药用植物Verbena officinalis显示,由于气候变化,中国的适合息地可能向北扩张. 最低温度是影响其分布的关键因素,影响保护和种植策略.
科学领域:
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 生物地理学 生物地理学 生物地理学
- 药用植物学 药用植物学
背景情况:
- 紫 (Verbena officinalis) 是中国传统医学的重要药用植物,由于依赖野生种群而面临资源短缺.
- 气候变化对V. officinalis资源的分布和可用性构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 根据当前和未来的气候变化情景,预测V. officinalis在中国的潜在分布.
- 确定影响其分布的关键环境因素.
- 为保护和可持续发展提供科学证据.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个优化的MaxEnt模型,其中有445个事件记录和90个环境变量.
- 进行了相关性分析和可变贡献率评估,以确定主要影响因素.
- 使用AUC (0.934) 评估模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 目前适合息地的面积为2.06×10^6平方公里 (占中国面积的21.39%),主要位于中部,东部和南部地区.
- 最冷月份的最低温度 (bio_6) 是主要因素 (72.8%的贡献),11月降水量和年度温度范围也很重要.
- 未来的气候场景预测,适合息地面积的总体增加,并向北扩大,特别是在2070年代的高排放场景下.
结论:
- 温度和降水是V. officinalis分布的关键决定因素.
- 预计气候变暖将推动北向转移和适合息地的扩张.
- 这些发现支持在不断变化的气候下对V. officinalis进行知情的保护,种植规划和可持续管理.
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