基于模糊多态贝叶斯网络的海底管道系统的可靠性分析.
Chao Liu1,2, Chuankun Zhou2, Hongyan Wang3,4
1College of Electromechanical Engineering, Qingdao University of Science & Technology, Qingdao, 266061, China.
Scientific reports
|April 3, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一个模糊多态贝叶斯网络 (FPBN),以改进海底管道可靠性分析. FPBN方法有效地处理部件故障率的不确定性,以更好地评估风险.
科学领域:
- * 工程 * 工程师 *
- * 风险管理 风险管理
- * 数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- * 海底管道系统由于环境的变化和有限的数据而存在复杂的工程挑战.
- * 不准确的部件故障率估计导致故障多态性和可靠性分析的不确定性.
- *现有的方法难以处理不准确的故障数据和不清楚的逻辑关系.
研究的目的:
- * 提出一种新的可靠性分析方法,用于使用模糊多态贝叶斯网络 (FPBN) 的海底管道.
- * 提高系统可靠性评估中的不确定性和故障多态性的处理.
- *为海底管道风险分析中的实际工程应用提供一个强大的框架.
主要方法:
- *使用多态断层树构建一个多态贝叶斯网络 (BN).
- * 整合模糊逻辑来管理不准确的故障率和不确定的关系.
- *适用于海底管道风险分析,包括定量失效概率计算和反向故障诊断.
主要成果:
- * 模糊多态贝叶斯网络 (FPBN) 有效地解决了组件故障率的模糊性和不确定性.
- * 量化分析成功计算了系统故障概率.
- *反向故障诊断通过确定根节点的后方概率来确定关键系统漏洞.
结论:
- * 拟议的FPBN方法为海底管道可靠性分析提供了一个强大的框架.
- *该方法成功地减轻了不准确数据和故障多态性所带来的挑战.
- * 这种方法具有重要的实际工程应用,用于提高海底管道的安全性和管理.
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