通过组织移植传播结核病的风险:定量风险评估
Amaury Gaussen1, Antoine Lewin1,2, Christian Renaud1
1Medical Affairs and Innovation, Héma-Québec, 1070 Avenue Des Sciences-de-La-Vie, Montréal and Québec, QC, G1V 5C3, Canada.
Cell and tissue banking
|April 4, 2025
概括
估计加拿大组织移植的结核病传播风险显示风险极低,在大多数组织中不到百万分之一. 这一发现支持目前用于组织移植的供体选择标准.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
- 移植科学 移植科学
背景情况:
- 最近与受污染的骨移植相关的结核病爆发突显出需要基于证据的供体选择标准.
- 目前缺乏通过组织移植传播结核病 (TB) 风险的估计,这阻碍了制定有效的预防策略.
- 制定强有力的供体选择标准需要对结核病传播的风险进行准确的评估.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计结核病通过组织移植传播的风险,在加拿大北克省.
- 提供数据,可以为基于证据的组织移植供体选择标准的制定提供信息.
- 评估是否需要实施用于组织移植的额外风险减轻措施.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种确定性数学模型来评估结核病传播风险.
- 该模型评估了皮肤,心血管,肌肉骨和眼部组织移植的风险.
- 根据最可能的,乐观的和悲观的情景估计了传播风险.
主要成果:
- 结核病传播的估计风险始终低于100万例皮肤,心血管和肌肉骨组织移植中的1例.
- 即使有参数通胀,对于非眼部组织,风险仍然非常低.
- 对于眼部组织移植,最有可能的风险场景估计传播率为1在312,160,由于存在活细胞而更高.
结论:
- 在北克,通过组织移植传播结核病的计算风险极低.
- 目前的风险减缓措施被认为是足够的,并没有必要采取额外的措施.
- 这项研究表明,从数学模型中估计风险的有用性,以告知组织移植的捐赠者选择标准.
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