老年人虚弱的风险预测模型:系统审查和批判性评估
Ling-Na Kong1, Li Yang2, Qiong Lyu3
1School of Nursing, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
International journal of nursing studies
|April 4, 2025
概括
老年人虚弱的风险预测模型显示验证和评估不佳. 未来的研究必须改进现有模型,并使用严格的方法开发新的模型,以提高临床适用性.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 老年人的虚弱增加了不良的健康结果.
- 风险预测模型可以指导脆弱性预防策略.
- 现有的脆弱性预测模型的质量和临床适用性在很大程度上是未知的.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查老年人虚弱的风险预测模型.
- 批判性地评估这些模型的质量和验证.
主要方法:
- 在PubMed,Embase,CINAHL和Cochrane图书馆进行了搜索 (截至2024年6月).
- 包括开发或验证脆弱性风险预测模型的研究.
- 使用预测模型偏差风险评估工具评估模型质量.
主要成果:
- 包括19项研究与22个脆弱风险预测模型.
- 常见的预测因素:年龄,认知功能,自我评估的健康,性别,ADL,抑郁症.
- 模型显示出良好的内部区分 (AUC/c指数0.707-0.920) 和校准,但外部验证有限 (AUC/c指数0.612-0.889).
- 大多数模型中都注意到存在偏差的高风险和对适用性的担忧.
结论:
- 当前老年人脆弱风险预测模型的验证和评估不足.
- 未来的研究需要增强现有模型,并开发新的模型,使用强大的方法来改善临床实施.
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