考虑到沉积估计的不确定性,以支持政策
Huw Woodward1, Elizabeth Ramos Fonseca1, Tim Oxley1
1Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Environmental research
|April 4, 2025
概括
反应性沉积超过了临界负载值,威胁着生物多样性. 模型的不确定性凸显了除了保护息地的技术措施之外,需要更大的雄心壮志.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 超过临界负载 (CL) 门的反应性 (Nr) 沉积损害了敏感的息地和生态系统功能.
- 精确测量和建模Nr沉积是具有挑战性的,导致显著的不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 评估来自不同英国模型的不同Nr沉积估计的政策影响.
- 评估未来的Nr沉积场景和减排措施的有效性,以制定政策目标.
主要方法:
- 对比了三个英国模型 (UKIAM,EMEP4UK,CBED) 进行Nr沉积评估.
- 采用了用于未来预测的缩放方法,以及用于概率超值评估的基于风险的方法.
- 分析了2018年的基线,2040年的基线和2040年的雄心勃勃的技术场景.
主要成果:
- 2018年基线CL超值因型号而异 (1.3-9.1公斤Nha-1年-1).
- 未来场景减少 (30-66%到2040) 也显示模型依赖,复杂的目标设定.
- 仅靠技术措施是不足以防止到2040年大多数息地超标.
结论:
- 在Nr沉积模型中的重大不确定性挑战了有效的政策制定和目标设定.
- 需要更大的野心来保护息地免受Nr沉积.
- 评估Nr沉积和减排效益的挑战并非英国独有的.
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