海洋表面温度变化的变化模式在改善季节性降水预报中的作用
Agniv Sengupta1, Duane E Waliser2,3, Michael J DeFlorio1
1Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA USA.
概括
改善季节性降水预报对于容易出现干旱的美国西部地区至关重要. 一个新的系统利用海面温度在多个季节和时间尺度上的变化,增强干旱预测技能.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 美国西部面临严重的干旱,由于季节性降水预测技能不足而加剧.
- 目前的预测模型缺乏有效的水资源和农业管理所需的准确性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个先进的季节性预测系统,以改善美国西部降雨预测.
- 解决干旱管理当前运营预测系统的能力差距.
主要方法:
- 利用长期海面温度 (SST) 变化模式 (全球和盆地规模).
- 分析多个前代季节的预测模式的时空演变.
- 纳入从年间到十年-多十年时间尺度的可预测性.
主要成果:
- 开发的系统在预测关键地区的冬季降水方面表现出了显著的技能:加利福尼亚州,太平洋西北地区和科罗拉多河上游流域.
- 该模型的性能优于现有的动态和统计预测基准.
- 交叉验证分析证实了系统的强大性能.
结论:
- 这种新的预测系统为在水压地区的季节性降水预测提供了增强的技能.
- 实验预测可以为水资源,农业和灾难准备利益相关者提供关键的情势意识.
- 这种方法在应对美国西部干旱挑战方面取得了重大进展.
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