病毒载荷对COVID-19严重程度和死亡率的影响
Johan Ringlander1,2, Anna Martner3, Li Huiqi4
1Department of Infectious Diseases, Institute of Biomedicine, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Infectious diseases (London, England)
|April 7, 2025
概括
高初始SARS-CoV-2病毒载量预测了所有年龄组的严重COVID-19结果,包括住院治疗和死亡. 这一发现甚至适用于接种疫苗的人,强调病毒载量作为关键的预后标记.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 最初的呼吸道病毒载荷和COVID-19严重程度之间的相关性仍然不完全理解.
- 关于患者年龄对SARS-CoV-2负载的影响现有研究提出了相互矛盾的发现.
研究的目的:
- 研究初始病毒载荷对COVID-19临床过程的影响.
- 分析患者年龄对SARS-CoV-2病毒载量的影响及其与疾病严重程度的关联.
主要方法:
- 对大量数据集 (259,511名年龄在0-105岁之间的个人) 的分析,在鼻抽样中量化了SARS-CoV-2RNA.
- 根据疫苗接种情况和流行病变体波的分层;通过住院或死亡来评估严重程度.
- 多变量建模以确定年龄对病毒载量和病毒载量对严重性的影响.
主要成果:
- 在未接种疫苗的人群中,儿童 (1-9岁) 的病毒载荷最低,婴儿 (1岁以下) 和老年人 (70-105岁) 的病毒载荷最高.
- 高病毒载量 (≥9log10副本/抽样) 与所有年龄组住院风险增加显著相关.
- 高病毒载量与成人 (20-69岁) 和老年人 (≥70岁) 以及接种疫苗的个体的死亡风险增加有关.
结论:
- 最初的SARS-CoV-2病毒载量是严重的COVID-19感染和死亡率的重要预测因素.
- 高病毒载量与严重结局之间的这种关联在不同年龄组和疫苗接种状态之间是一致的.
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