对青海-西藏高原碳储存变化的分析和预测
Lei Wang1, Yaping Zhang1, Xu Chen2,3
1School of Information Science and Technology, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, China.
PloS one
|April 7, 2025
概括
青海-西藏高原的碳储量一直在波动,但总体上有所增加,这是由草原和森林推动的. 未来的预测显示持续增长,特别是在生态保护情景下.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 青海-西藏高原是一个重要的全球碳储库,对地球的碳循环至关重要.
- 了解土地利用和气候变化对碳储存的影响,对于生态系统的可持续性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析青海-西藏高原的历史土地利用和碳储存变化 (2000-2020年).
- 根据各种情景预测未来的土地使用和碳储存趋势 (2030-2040年).
- 评估驱动因素对碳储存及其空间异质性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值 (InVEST) 模型进行历史分析.
- 为了未来的预测,采用了产生补丁的土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型.
- 综合碳密度数据和应用普通最小方程 (OLS) 和地理权重回归 (GWR) 模型来确定驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 碳储存显示出波动性的增加,主要归因于草原和森林,土壤有机碳是占主导地位的池.
- 碳储存的积极驱动因素包括数字海拔模型 (DEM),温度,基础设施的接近,以及规范差异植被指数 (NDVI).
- 干旱被确定为影响碳储存的负面因素.
结论:
- 青海-西藏高原的碳储量预计将在所有分析的场景中增加,而生态保护措施带来了最显著的收益.
- 该研究提供了气候和土地利用对高原碳储存的影响的全面分析.
- 这些发现支持加强生态系统的可持续性,并为青海-西藏高原的政策制定提供信息.
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