亚冰川水放大了南极对海平面上升的贡献
Chen Zhao1,2,3, Rupert Gladstone4, Thomas Zwinger5
1Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. chen.zhao@utas.edu.au.
亚冰川水对南极冰流产生重大影响,到2300年可能使海平面上升2.2米. 在模型中忽视这一关键因素,低估了未来的海平面上升,并推迟了关键的临界点.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 南极洲对全球海平面上升的贡献是不确定的.
- 冰下水被怀疑会影响冰盖动态,但其确切的影响尚不清楚.
- 当前的冰盖模型往往简化或排除了冰下水过程.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究亚冰川水压在南极冰盖行为中的作用.
- 量化地下冰川水对海平面上升预测的影响.
- 评估不同的冰下水的假设如何影响冰盖的倾斜点.
主要方法:
- 使用了南极冰盖模型 (埃尔默/冰).
- 在各种基本水压场景下,模拟了从2015年到2300年的海平面上升预测.
- 分析了基底阻力平稳下降与空间恒定的有效压力对比的影响.
主要成果:
- 加入冰下水可以使冰的排放增加三倍,到2300年海平面上升可能增加2.2米.
- 简化基底阻力假设可以在2300年前将接地线流量增加一倍以上.
- 在某些场景中,由于冰下水的影响,倾斜点可能会提前40年.
结论:
- 亚冰川水文是影响南极冰层排放和全球海平面上升的关键因素.
- 从模型中排除现实的冰下水动态,导致低估了未来海平面上升.
- 准确地将不断变化的亚冰川水文学纳入冰盖模型,对于可靠的气候预测至关重要.
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