对蚊子载体中气候变化驱动的范围转移进行系统审查
Kelsey Lyberger1, Anna Rose Robinson2, Lisa Couper3
1College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, AZ.
bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology
|April 8, 2025
概括
全球变暖可能不是蚊子范围转移的主要驱动因素. 人类活动,如贸易和土地利用变化,与蚊子种群的扩张密切相关,影响疾病传播.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升引发了人们对蚊子范围扩大和疾病传播 (例如疟疾,登革热) 的担忧.
- 有限的系统证据表明,蚊子分布的气候驱动变化存在.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查记录医学上重要的蚊子物种范围扩大或收缩的研究.
- 评估气候变化与其他因素在观察到的蚊子范围变化中的作用.
主要方法:
- 在六大洲对178项研究进行了系统审查.
- 对蚊子范围变化的引述驱动因素的分析,包括气候,人类辅助的分散,土地利用变化和城市化.
主要成果:
- 118种蚊子的生长范围扩大,超过三分之一的蚊子的生长范围因变暖而扩大.
- 只有不到10%的研究统计测试了气候的作用;大多数扩张与人类活动有关.
- 没有证明温暖边缘的收缩,许多扩张填充了先前存在的合适息地.
结论:
- 人类协助的分散和土地利用变化是目前蚊子范围扩张的主要驱动因素,而不仅仅是气候变暖.
- 需要长期监测,强大的气候归因方法和混因素的记录,以了解疾病载体动态.
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