探索影响山地高速公路交通安全因素的时间相关性:通过新的碰撞频率建模方法
Liang Zhang1, Zhongxiang Huang1, Aiwu Kuang1
1School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, China.
PloS one
|April 8, 2025
概括
山地高速公路上的安全风险表现出季节性模式. 新的模型准确地捕捉了这些时间相关性,改善了碰撞预测,并确定了道路特征和交通量等关键风险因素.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 交通安全 交通安全
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 山地高速公路安全风险表现出季节性聚类和时间相关性.
- 现有的机模型无法捕捉这些时间动态,导致不合适和不准确的结论.
研究的目的:
- 开发新的碰撞建模方法,以考虑山区高速公路安全的时间相关性.
- 量化分析影响中国山区高速公路撞车频率的因素.
主要方法:
- 从中国山地高速公路的八个季度数据集建立了一个多维撞车数据集.
- 提出了两种新的基于Poisson的碰撞模型,包括自回归结构和时间变化的系数.
- 通过使用合适度和预测准确度指标与七个现有的时间相关模型对新模型进行了验证.
主要成果:
- 与现有方法相比,拟议的模型表现出优越的性能.
- 证实了不同季度的撞车频率之间的显著关联.
- 在交叉路口,道和服务区发现了更高的碰撞风险;增加的交通量和卡车比例;以及路面光滑的缓解效应.
结论:
- 开发了中国山区高速公路安全因素的第一个时间相关模型方法.
- 适度降雨增加了撞车风险,而大雨则悖论地降低了它.
- 调查结果为在山区高速公路上制定有效的安全对策提供了宝贵的见解.
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