多变量预测模型的开发和验证,以社区为基础的老年人退学计划中退学.
Masanori Morikawa1,2, Kenji Harada1, Satoshi Kurita3
1Center for Gerontology and Social Science, National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology, Obu, Japan.
Journal of physical activity & health
|April 8, 2025
概括
一个新的模型预测,老年人会退出社区项目. 它识别了身体和认知功能等关键因素,但更可靠地预测了谁会留下,而不是谁会离开.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 基于社区的项目对于老年人的福祉至关重要.
- 预测和预防学是计划有效性和参与者的参与度至关重要的.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种多变量模型,用于预测老年人从社区外出计划中学.
- 确定这个人口群体中节目消耗的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自老年综合征研究的5905名老年人的前队列.
- 在培训和验证数据集上采用极端梯度增强算法 (6:2:2比).
- 在测试数据集上使用接收器操作特征 (ROC) 和校准图表进行评估模型区分和校准.
主要成果:
- 该模型实现了ROC曲线下的面积为0.701.
- 发现的关键特征包括认知功能,身体功能,以及参与运动/体育活动的意愿.
- 该模型显示了高特异性 (0.915) 和负预测值 (0.718) 脱学预测.
结论:
- 开发的预测模型在识别不太可能放弃的参与者方面显示出可靠性.
- 身体和认知功能,以及对身体活动的意愿,似乎是计划坚持的主要预测因素.
- 可能需要进一步改进,以提高可能退出参与者的预测准确度.
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