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基于自然的解决方案作为沿海洪水风险降低的基石:基于模型的生态系统服务评估
Massimiliano Marino1, Martin J Baptist2, Ahmad I K Alkharoubi3
1Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Catania, Via Santa Sofia 64, Catania, Italy. massimiliano.marino@unict.it.
Scientific reports
|April 8, 2025
概括
基于自然的解决方案 (NbS) 有效地减少了洪水风险. 本研究介绍了一种模型,用于在未来的气候场景下从沿海NbS量化洪水风险降低生态系统服务 (FRR-ESS).
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 沿海生态 沿海生态
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 基于自然的解决方案 (NbS) 对于减轻洪水风险和适应气候变化至关重要.
- 目前用于减少洪水风险的生态系统服务 (FRR-ESS) 的评估方法往往是定性和有限的,特别是对于未来的气候场景.
- 在不断变化的环境条件下评估NbS有效性存在严重的不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和介绍一个基于模型的框架来量化沿海NbS提供的FRR-ESS.
- 为了使NbS效应的比较评估,无论是单独的还是组合的,使用构建块方法.
- 调查NbS对当前和未来风暴情景的减少洪水反应,包括海平面上升和波浪气候变化.
主要方法:
- 基于专家的评估与生态水态动力学数值模型的定量结果的整合.
- 应用构建块方法来评估个人和联合NbS影响.
- 纳入息地图变化预测,以评估NbS在各种风暴场景下的反应.
主要成果:
- 该模型框架成功量化了沿海NbS的FRR-ESS.
- 沿海息地在减少洪水风险方面的重要作用被证明.
- 基于物理的建模集成对于强大的FRR-ESS评估至关重要.
结论:
- 开发的模型为评估沿海NbS提供了强大而灵活的工具.
- 研究结果强调了将定量建模纳入生态系统服务评估的重要性.
- 这种方法支持对生态可持续性和减少灾害风险的知情决策.
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